The "Chinese Checkers" piece was very well written, very balanced. It brings out the risks (to themselves) and practical problems in both America and China's approaches. In America's case, an upcoming election makes the policy making for optics-only, outcomes be damned. While China doesn't face that "problem of democracies", it runs the risk that its policies don't encounter public feedback, unless things go horribly wrong for too long... by which time, of course, the damage is done.
I do feel China has the upper hand here mostly because the rest of the world cannot replace China as the producer of goods. Or even if they can, it will take a long time to happen - not the timeframe that America hopes for.
Pranay, keen to hear your view on the implications of US tariffs on China and China’s likely retaliation on Indian trade balances given some of the manufacturing incentives that GOI has provided for. Thanks.
Hi Prolin. Arvind Subramaniam has a good article on this recently. I concur with that view. In the short term, this is an opportunity for third countries which already have some manufacturing capabilities lest these restrictions slide into full blown protectionism against everyone.
Regarding Mumbai's development, Mumbai does have regular municipal elections. Why is that political process not helping? I asked a detailed question at OpenTakshashila. It will be great to have a conversation on this topic: https://opentakshashila.net/posts/56727652?utm_source=manual
The "Chinese Checkers" piece was very well written, very balanced. It brings out the risks (to themselves) and practical problems in both America and China's approaches. In America's case, an upcoming election makes the policy making for optics-only, outcomes be damned. While China doesn't face that "problem of democracies", it runs the risk that its policies don't encounter public feedback, unless things go horribly wrong for too long... by which time, of course, the damage is done.
I do feel China has the upper hand here mostly because the rest of the world cannot replace China as the producer of goods. Or even if they can, it will take a long time to happen - not the timeframe that America hopes for.
Thanks for your comment. My view is that China doesn't have the upper hand. See here for an example: https://publicpolicy.substack.com/i/133864082/matsyanyaaya-chinas-counter-to-high-tech-export-controls
Pranay, keen to hear your view on the implications of US tariffs on China and China’s likely retaliation on Indian trade balances given some of the manufacturing incentives that GOI has provided for. Thanks.
Hi Prolin. Arvind Subramaniam has a good article on this recently. I concur with that view. In the short term, this is an opportunity for third countries which already have some manufacturing capabilities lest these restrictions slide into full blown protectionism against everyone.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-trade-war-creates-opportunities-for-india-and-other-developing-countries-by-arvind-subramanian-2024-5-2024-05
Regarding Mumbai's development, Mumbai does have regular municipal elections. Why is that political process not helping? I asked a detailed question at OpenTakshashila. It will be great to have a conversation on this topic: https://opentakshashila.net/posts/56727652?utm_source=manual
Done.