Catching up on recent developments: India-Canada, China's Stimulus, Fertility Decline Debate, and the Imperative for India-Pakistan Environmental Co-operation
It is interesting to read RSJ's opinions on the India-Canada spat.
> I suspect there will be more evidence that will pile up about the involvement of Indian actors ..
It is eyebrow raising that such evidence has not been presented and the Canadian legislators are sharing a very different account on what happened under oath. All talk no action of said evidence is sad, but again this is Canada we are talking about. RSJ probably suffers the 'Sahib syndrome', but that is fine.
> What I still cannot appreciate is how much of a real threat are a bunch of Khalistanis sitting in Canada to our sovereignty.
This statement is, perhaps, indicative of a larger trend with this newsletter. I hope I am wrong. Let me explain. These so called 'bunch of Khalistanis', assume powerful positions in the Canadian government and wield significant power in shaping domestic and foreign policies. A monkey with an internet connection can find this out in 5 minutes. So, now we have these people who hold key positions and having the ear of the government, spewing hatred against Hindus and the Indian state. Making a diorama of Indira Gandhi's assassination, restarting the investigation of Air india terror attack to pay their way out of being held accountable, and shooting bullets at the photo of the Indian High Commissioner. Is there a bigger red flag than this? Perhaps this is wilful ignorance by RSJ. Please think if this was your relative who was the High Commissioner, would you not express concern?
Now, coming to the larger trend. When any tom dick harry abuses our sensibilities or idea of India or actively harms the lives of Indians abroad, the government should do whatever in their power to ensure our citizens are safe. The authors' disdain for the current government prevent them from seeing the actions that protect India/Indians. Hence, the government ensuring safety of our diplomats is a diplomatic tightrope and this special oracle predicts there is more evidence surely to come out. Please, have some backbone. I am not even going into the spotty track record of the truthfulness of US agencies when it comes to intelligence, and we have assumed what they will tell us is the truth.
This was quite a rant, but again I repeat. Have a backbone and do good for your fellow Indians.
I have been thinking about Pannun and whether he represents any credible threat. I am in two minds:
His rants look very deranged. Sometimes quite comical.
But OTOH, he regularly gives specific threat to airlines with dates and airline-name (mostly Air India). This can unnerve people who may cancel tickets or move to other airlines. This is a tangible attack on an Indian entity by impacting its business.
I personally would love the Indian government to punish Pannun and his likes. But not murder.
My main grudge is against our supposed Quad Ally. They seem to be forcing our (Indian government) hands, humiliating us, for some joy. I cannot figure out for what joy.
PS: I listened to a podcast of RSJ/Pranay with Amit Varma. RSJ did not come around as someone who only has 'disdain for the current government'. He appreciated quite a few stuffs about Modi Sarkar even when Amit was nudging on a different critical line.
Median Age for India is 28, but there's still a very wide variation in the states - we haven't had a new census yet, but extrapolating from data in 2011, the South and the East are probably already in the low to mid 30s while Central India and North is probably still in mid 20s. Any growth in future India, would eventually come down to whether the young states are competent enough - 60% literacy in Bihar, for e.g., isn't ideal
The article and in general most population economics debate talks about decline of working age population. But has there been any good research in terms of the impact of increased lifespan and healthspan in recent decades? As we are projecting that population will peak in 2054, are there good projections on how the healthspan (and therefore the definition of working age) might change the working age definition in next 3-4 decades?
On the similar lines, are there also projections on how the AI & technology has been improving the labour productivity? Can we achieve similar level of modern day productivity with much lesser labour force participation? Curious to know if there are findings on this multi-faceted projections?
> Instead, if they really care about a declining population., they should lead the charge on reducing barriers to migration, increasing retirement ages for the elderly, and implementing family-oriented policies that reduce the parenting burden
I'm a little confused by this take, because increasing immigration doesn't seem to be a valid strategy for India? The path you describe is obviously the way forward for countries like the United States. In those cases, the political unpopularity of immigration (Build the Wall), retirement age increases (French pension strikes) and taxation increases will eventually give way under the primary concern of all voters, the economy (as they are starting to in Japan).
But under a global regime where the population is declining worldwide, who is it that is going to be migrating to India? Even if fertility does not continue to fall in regions such as Africa, it seems more likely that they will choose to move to countries like Canada, France, the US, or even Japan and Korea, rather than India. Rather, it seems more likely that the brain drain from India is going to increase as immigration restrictions loosen throughout the developing world.
It is interesting to read RSJ's opinions on the India-Canada spat.
> I suspect there will be more evidence that will pile up about the involvement of Indian actors ..
It is eyebrow raising that such evidence has not been presented and the Canadian legislators are sharing a very different account on what happened under oath. All talk no action of said evidence is sad, but again this is Canada we are talking about. RSJ probably suffers the 'Sahib syndrome', but that is fine.
> What I still cannot appreciate is how much of a real threat are a bunch of Khalistanis sitting in Canada to our sovereignty.
This statement is, perhaps, indicative of a larger trend with this newsletter. I hope I am wrong. Let me explain. These so called 'bunch of Khalistanis', assume powerful positions in the Canadian government and wield significant power in shaping domestic and foreign policies. A monkey with an internet connection can find this out in 5 minutes. So, now we have these people who hold key positions and having the ear of the government, spewing hatred against Hindus and the Indian state. Making a diorama of Indira Gandhi's assassination, restarting the investigation of Air india terror attack to pay their way out of being held accountable, and shooting bullets at the photo of the Indian High Commissioner. Is there a bigger red flag than this? Perhaps this is wilful ignorance by RSJ. Please think if this was your relative who was the High Commissioner, would you not express concern?
Now, coming to the larger trend. When any tom dick harry abuses our sensibilities or idea of India or actively harms the lives of Indians abroad, the government should do whatever in their power to ensure our citizens are safe. The authors' disdain for the current government prevent them from seeing the actions that protect India/Indians. Hence, the government ensuring safety of our diplomats is a diplomatic tightrope and this special oracle predicts there is more evidence surely to come out. Please, have some backbone. I am not even going into the spotty track record of the truthfulness of US agencies when it comes to intelligence, and we have assumed what they will tell us is the truth.
This was quite a rant, but again I repeat. Have a backbone and do good for your fellow Indians.
I have been thinking about Pannun and whether he represents any credible threat. I am in two minds:
His rants look very deranged. Sometimes quite comical.
But OTOH, he regularly gives specific threat to airlines with dates and airline-name (mostly Air India). This can unnerve people who may cancel tickets or move to other airlines. This is a tangible attack on an Indian entity by impacting its business.
I personally would love the Indian government to punish Pannun and his likes. But not murder.
My main grudge is against our supposed Quad Ally. They seem to be forcing our (Indian government) hands, humiliating us, for some joy. I cannot figure out for what joy.
PS: I listened to a podcast of RSJ/Pranay with Amit Varma. RSJ did not come around as someone who only has 'disdain for the current government'. He appreciated quite a few stuffs about Modi Sarkar even when Amit was nudging on a different critical line.
Median Age for India is 28, but there's still a very wide variation in the states - we haven't had a new census yet, but extrapolating from data in 2011, the South and the East are probably already in the low to mid 30s while Central India and North is probably still in mid 20s. Any growth in future India, would eventually come down to whether the young states are competent enough - 60% literacy in Bihar, for e.g., isn't ideal
> The Population Debate With a Twist
The article and in general most population economics debate talks about decline of working age population. But has there been any good research in terms of the impact of increased lifespan and healthspan in recent decades? As we are projecting that population will peak in 2054, are there good projections on how the healthspan (and therefore the definition of working age) might change the working age definition in next 3-4 decades?
On the similar lines, are there also projections on how the AI & technology has been improving the labour productivity? Can we achieve similar level of modern day productivity with much lesser labour force participation? Curious to know if there are findings on this multi-faceted projections?
> Instead, if they really care about a declining population., they should lead the charge on reducing barriers to migration, increasing retirement ages for the elderly, and implementing family-oriented policies that reduce the parenting burden
I'm a little confused by this take, because increasing immigration doesn't seem to be a valid strategy for India? The path you describe is obviously the way forward for countries like the United States. In those cases, the political unpopularity of immigration (Build the Wall), retirement age increases (French pension strikes) and taxation increases will eventually give way under the primary concern of all voters, the economy (as they are starting to in Japan).
But under a global regime where the population is declining worldwide, who is it that is going to be migrating to India? Even if fertility does not continue to fall in regions such as Africa, it seems more likely that they will choose to move to countries like Canada, France, the US, or even Japan and Korea, rather than India. Rather, it seems more likely that the brain drain from India is going to increase as immigration restrictions loosen throughout the developing world.
we are talking about intra-country migration. Advantage of a continent sized country.