#64 The Quest for Narrative Dominance
Civilisational Worldviews, Lobbying, Death Of A Star And The Real Victims Of 'Act Of God'
This newsletter is really a weekly public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?
India Policy Watch #1: Unlock 4.0 And Lobbying
Insights on burning policy issues in India
— Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley
Two small essays on topics of contemporary interest.
1. A Guide To Rational Behaviour
Unlock 4.0 guidelines came out yesterday. Nobody cared. We all have our version of the unlock in our heads.
About five months back India had a daily fresh COVID-19 case count of about 100. Yesterday, it came in at about 78,000.
Then the streets were deserted, shops were closed, and police were beating up those who violated the curfew. Today markets are open, there are minor traffic jams on roads and states have lifted even basic quarantine guidelines. Then if there was a religious congregation of about a thousand people, news anchors would call them anti-national. Today, there are people opposing the conduct of JEE NEET examinations that would involve lakhs of students. The same anchors are terming these people anti-nationals.
How do we square this? There are three ways to look at this.
People aren’t rational: We don’t make every decision using data or analysing risks and rewards. Fear, belief and confidence are often involved in our decision calculus. We are out and about more today than five months back because the state is signalling to us that it’s fine to do so. Most of us are happy to outsource decision making.
Behaviour cascade: We follow others and mimic their behaviour more than we might want to admit. Ordering food online, going to work or pulling the mask down to the chin while talking are examples of this. Every person at the margin undertaking a risky act reduces the threshold of risk perception for the next person. This cascades into mass risky behaviour over time.
Getting on with life: The lack of social security and absence of an adequate fiscal support programme has meant people have no option but to get on with their lives. The relatively lower mortality rates in India and the shift in focus on individual responsibility on COVID-19 containment has aided this.
The recent India Today poll that shows record approval ratings for the PM and this government ties up with the above. There’s an effective mix of factors at play - a demonstration of sincerity in tackling the pandemic, high personal integrity, catchy sloganeering (‘vocal for local’), projecting optimism and some ‘resonant’ distractions (Ram temple ground-breaking event, Chinese bans). These have helped in turning every bad news into an opportunity to showcase strength. A decimated opposition that has no fight left in it has helped. Yet, there’s something more at play here that we can’t appreciate as we live in this moment.
For future historians, this phase in our polity will be a goldmine.
2. We Are All Public Policy Directors
The Public Policy Director of Facebook India has been in the news of late. There are a whole lot of Public Policy roles in large companies these days. The role intrigues me. My guess is Chief Lobbying Officer doesn’t look good on LinkedIn.
Anyway, it is a good cue to analyse the roles of special interest groups or lobbyists in influencing public policy. These groups add value to the public policy discourse when pursuing their interests in a transparent and legitimate fashion.
Why Do Interest Groups Exist?
First, the state has an outsized role in our lives. It exercises legitimate force to draft laws across many spheres of public life. This discretionary power that doesn’t emerge from free interactions of people but that’s planned or willed is central to the origin of lobbying. Second, since the state involves itself in so many areas, it is impossible for it to be an expert in all of them. It needs views and advice from others to understand all facets of an issue before making a policy. Third, the freedom to express our views on any topic and the willingness of the state to listen to our views is the lifeblood of a democracy. The interest groups act as a platform to consolidate the voice of the public to make it heard to the policymakers. Lastly, often the costs of a policy decision are spread over a large section of the society while the benefits are concentrated with a few. This creates a natural incentive for groups to lobby for their positions.
The Many Hues of Interest Groups
There are different ways to view such groups. One lens to apply is the target audience that the group is seeking to influence. The target audience could be the lawmakers or it could be the general public. Often it is both but there’s always a greater emphasis on one of them. For instance, NASSCOM focuses on creating awareness and advocating interests of Indian IT industry among lawmakers globally and in India. It also works on public awareness and in deepening technology skills in India, but it is evident these are secondary objectives. This is because its members have their own approach in developing IT talent and often compete with each other. But they are together in working to influence policymakers around the world to develop the industry.
On a different note, there are interest groups who focus on changing the views of the general public on a broader range of issues. These groups take a longer-term view of their goals. Brookings Institute is a think tank that advocates liberal positions on various social and economic issues. Through its research programmes, publications and events, it seeks to influence the wider community. There might be specific opportunities to work directly with the lawmakers but those are less common. Its goal is to create a wider public consensus on the worldview it espouses.
The other view is based on the constituents of these groups. Often, the members come together based on common interests or objectives to form such groups. COAI in the Indian telecom industry or Greenpeace for environment protection are examples of such groups. These groups synthesise multiple voices from within it on the same subject. The other end of this is the ‘public policy’ teams within organisations that focus on the furthering its interests. This is the Facebook example. While they may disagree, it is difficult for such teams to take nuanced views on issues that go against their organisation. Most of the ‘public policy’ roles in organisations fall into this category.
Moulding Public Opinion
There are three ways interest groups influence policymaking. The choice of these methods (or, a combination of them) depends on the existing position on a topic among the public or lawmakers.
The most common method is to argue on the merits of a specific position, specify the benefits of this argument and contrast it with the costs of the opposing position. This is useful in areas where public opinion is still evolving or unformed. These arguments are then set into a narrative with logical and emotional appeal for the consumption of the public. Brexit was a good example of this. There was a clear Yes or No outcome, so the interest groups created narratives to influence public opinion.
The other method is to influence the ‘frame’ of opinion on a specific topic. This involves changing the weightage of a particular belief among the public than changing the argument itself. For instance, in the case of decriminalising homosexuality, there are two beliefs involving morality and individual choice that are being weighed by public or lawmakers simultaneously. The ‘framing’ method is to influence the weights of these beliefs than arguing that the belief itself as wrong.
The final method is the use of a credible source to support a policy stance. This is useful when the public awareness of an issue is low and the source helps in building the public opinion.
Of course, there’s that other way to influence policymaking by funding lawmakers and their parties. Or agreeing upon a quid pro quo using other means. The role of large social media platforms in supporting a political cause and using that as a currency to influence policymaking is an example of this. Election funding in India is opaque. The source of funds for many interest groups isn’t public. These are fertile grounds for subverting the policymaking process.
Eternal Vigilance
The way the incentives for most public policy proposals are aligned makes it easier for interest groups to coordinate their efforts in support of their stance. The costs are diffused among the general public who find it difficult to organise themselves. The individual benefit to the public isn’t worth the effort. It is evident lobbying is intrinsic to this model.
The long-term response to this challenge is an unrelenting focus on public awareness of issues and eternal vigilance. Everyone should turn into a public policy director.
In a small measure that’s what this newsletter strives to achieve.
Matsyanyaaya: Do Civilisational Worldviews Influence Foreign Policy Conduct?
Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action
— Pranay Kotasthane
We often hear of concepts such as tiānxià and the Arthashastra rajamandala being deployed to explain Chinese and Indian foreign policy actions. Isn’t that a gross simplification. Can these concepts and treatises have an impact on foreign policy conduct of nation-states today, after several centuries have gone by? This question was the subject of an All Things Policy Podcast episode earlier this week.
My answer to this question was, yes. The stories we tell about ourselves do have some influence on our foreign policy. My colleagues disagreed. Let me summarise their arguments before presenting my view.
The first opposition comes from an iron-clad adherence to the idea of structural realism. In this view, all states act, at a minimum, to ensure their own survival in a system characterised by matsyanyaaya. They will do whatever it takes to achieve this goal. Thus, the only determinants of foreign policy conduct are emergent threats, relative power equations, and a desire for maximising chances of survival. Civilisational narratives, by extension, are redundant. They are at best post facto justifications used by states themselves or as thumbs of rules used by adversaries to make sense of another state’s actions.
The second opposition is along the lines that there is nothing like a “civilisational” worldview. There are many different views within civilisations. For example, Arthashastra, Nitimandala, Amuktamalayada and many other such books argue for different visions of statecraft at different points of time in India’s history. So it wouldn’t be accurate to argue that India’s foreign policy conduct is based on just one of these texts.
My response to the first argument is as follows. Of course, it would be too simplistic to argue that the belligerence of PRC towards most of its neighbours today can be explained by just one civilisational construct like tiānxià.
Nation-states indeed operate in anarchy and ensuring their own chances of continued survival guide their actions. Yet, what threatens survival is itself a subjective perception and not an objective truth. For instance, some nation-states’ foreign policy outlook imagines terrorism as the biggest threat to their survival. For some others, it is the idea of disorder on its periphery that is of paramount importance for survival. For some others still, it is the idea of domestic disharmony that endangers survival. These imaginations for survival imperatives can be shaped by civilisational worldviews.
Take the case of the PRC today. Does the mere existence of Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan necessarily threaten its very survival? Not quite. But its belligerence indicates otherwise. One explanation for why the PRC is so sensitive towards these regions comes from tiānxià. As Howard French writes in his excellent book Everything under the Heavens:
Despite the variations… at the foundation of this remarkably resilient Pax Sinica lay a basic proposition that was reasonably consistent: Accept our superiority and we will confer upon you political legitimacy, develop a trade partnership and provide a range of what are known in the language of modern international affairs as public goods. As important as it was for neighboring rulers to enjoy the recognition of the Central Kingdom, it was equally important for the authority of a succession of Chinese emperors to have symbolically obeisant foreigners bowing regularly to their moral prestige and power.
Thus, the tianxia worldview colours what survival means to the PRC. To what extent, we cannot be sure.
To put it in another way, even within a realist frame, sudden shifts in relative power leave multiple options with nation-states to chart out a path for their survival. Civilisational worldviews and history play a role when these options are compared against each other. The cost-benefit calculations, inevitably done in the presence of insufficient information, are often influenced by the narrative that states create for themselves. This also explains why Indian statecraft is so stubbornly centred around the Indian subcontinent.
Regarding the second charge of the inaccuracy of a single civilisational worldview, I agree partially. Indeed there are ideational clashes within civilisations. What we need to remember though is that some narratives are more powerful; they outlast other challengers. The imagination of our past is necessarily a selective exercise with the aim of creating a coherent arc that suits the policymaking elites’ political purpose.
One idea in the Arthashastra — like the subcontinent as one integrated entity — is one such powerful narrative that has survived. Combined with the historical experience of invasions from the north-west, this narrative got more strength and perhaps is the reason behind India’s continental outlook, one that ignores its central position in the Indian Ocean. Similarly, some forms of the tiānxià idea have survived over centuries through shared myths. These narratives influence Chinese policymakers’ perceptions. They are, at least, one of the factors that influence the cost-benefit calculations.
So, there are fundamental differences in how different civilisations see international relations. Even if all of them see the world as matsyanyaaya, they might have different ideas of what constitutes victory and loss. Indeed, they might even have different rules for the same game. Narratives matter.
India Policy Watch #2: A Star Is Dead
Insights on burning policy issues in India
— Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley
We are into the sixth month of the pandemic in India. At various points in time in this period we have taken stock of the world around us and what does that tell us about Indian policymaking and society. We will attempt that again here.
On June 14, a popular film star was found dead in his flat in Mumbai. The cause of death is believed to be suicide. Fame in film industry is fickle. Audience tastes change, objective measure of worth is difficult and work often comes through relationship networks or ‘camps’. The highs and lows can be extreme. Mental health issues are quite common in this environment though its acknowledgement is limited. Suicides, depression, chronic alcoholism and drug abuse have been an unfortunate recurrence in the industry over the years.
In ordinary course of things, this suicide would have been a lamentable addition to the industry lore. But that was not to be. Through an alchemy of ardent fandom, a wider campaign against nepotism in the industry, the ennui of lockdown among the public and the insatiable hunger for TRPs among TV news channels, we now have the CBI, ED, NCB, police teams from two states and the Supreme Court busy with the case. The low capacity of our justice system has created a backlog of cases that run for years with over 2.8 lakh under-trials who are in prisons without a conviction. The moral case for such attention and effort for this case is weak when viewed in the broader context.
It is easy to dismiss this as a sideshow in the great Indian tamasha that plays out daily. Of course, there are more serious issues to tackle. However, that would be a mistake. A cultural phenomenon often provides us with an incisive commentary about the society that’s as nuanced as a rigorous anthropological work. It is useful to ask what we have learnt so far from how this case has progressed.
A Template For Future Narratives
The entire episode is a case study for those looking to build future narratives. Part of this was organic while a lot of it was sustained with a view to target specific interests.
It began with genuine tributes to the star. The mythologising started soon after. An interest in stargazing and physics transmuted into the star being an expert in quantum mechanics. And in a matter of days, he turned into an ambidextrous, do-gooder, superman who quoted Greek philosophers and Einstein in the same sentence. That he was a middle class, outsider with roots in Bihar added to his myth.
Once this emotional core was established in an organic manner then began the quest for why someone like him would take his own life. This is when conspiracy theorists joined in. Nepotism which is rife in the industry became the tool to target established names in the industry. The star was painted as a victim of these prejudices. There is a ready market in India against nepotism even among those who use it to their advantage. This has gotten stronger in the last two elections where the Congress was seen as a shining example of having promoted nepotism at the cost of national interest.
As the momentum built up, a coalition of interests emerged – true fans of the star, those who were against nepotism and those who used this opportunity to include in the conspiracy people from the film industry against whom there’s a ‘natural market’ of hate. This latter group included outspoken critics of the current regime, few superstars from the minority communities and those who pick up left-liberal causes.
As this coalition built up, it was ripe for a political turn. It arrived with the Bihar and Maharashtra police differing on jurisdictions. It turned into a political slugfest since the two states were ruled by opposing political dispensations. The TV news channels got into the act and we now have a round-the-clock trial by media with leaked chats, unsubstantiated accounts of friends, family members, household staff that are used to target the same set of people daily. This distraction is handy at a time when the pandemic case counts in India is soaring. Finally, the state acted because either it has to or there’s a scalp or two, political or otherwise, that might come out of this.
Weaponising As An Art Form
We have discussed about a dissonance that animates public discourse in India today. We have a hugely popular PM whose performance on objective parameters comes up short. There’s a constant search for ways to reduce this dissonance. The fable of the ‘outsider’ star whose career was cut short by a clique of insiders who represent interests inimical to India helps with this. This notion that there’s an elite establishment, a kind of a deep state, that’s standing in the way of our progress has gained strength in these months. Expect more instances of such fables in other social spheres in the coming days.
It is amazing people are willing to believe the strongest regime in the history of independent India that has complete narrative and political dominance is being stymied by a fringe, mythical elite that holds almost no power. But this is the dominant opinion. The dismantling of this elite is the last act left. Every incident will be weighed to explore if it can be weaponised to this end.
The Wonder That’s Indian News Television
That brings me to the role of TV news channel in this. Primetime news has morphed into something out of a dystopian Philip K. Dick novel. It is a headache of talking heads with the anchors outshouting everyone else. There’s no analysis or any nuance in these ‘debates’. This suicide and its amateur investigation led by the news channels have dominated the news cycle in the past month. This contrasts sharply with the coverage in print where this news struggles to make it to the front pages. What could explain this?
First, print readers are a minority, and possibly, more mature. They might just be looking for news in their papers. But those looking for narrative dominance are hardly bothered about print. Its irrelevance is now real despite what the print circulation figures might tell us. Second, the editorial process still works in print. There’s some rigour in assessing what gets published. Given what’s dished out on live TV debates every night, there’s no reason to believe there’s anything resembling editorial oversight in these newsrooms. Third, a transcript of any of these debates will make things clear. It is impossible to print this kind of garbage. You won’t find either writers or readers for this. TV camouflages this through a medley of images, moving tickers, noise, and rhetoric. It is a perfect medium for propaganda. This is amplified further through social media sites where these channels create hashtags or use small clips drawn from these debates.
Meme Is The New Normal
This unfortunate death and the events following it have served up a template on how to weaponise a news event in future. The ease in creating narratives that confirm the prevalent biases in the society, the ready availability of predetermined targets who have been systematically vilified as the elite over the years and a network of TV news channels willing to amplify this message are the core elements of this template. As we come to terms with the economic and health impact of the pandemic, we might see more such instances.
That meme will look normal soon.
India Policy Watch #3: No God for Local Governments
Insights on burning policy issues in India
— Pranay Kotasthane
The “act of god” excuse of the Union government to deny state governments the revenue-loss compensation, was in the news last week. We will cover the implications of this for Union-State relations in a later edition. This week, I just want to focus on the impact on municipal finances arising from the GST.
The third-level of governments have always been given a miss in our federalism discourse. These governments have functions to carry out without any constitutional right to money. They are dependent on states for their finances. Unsurprisingly, state governments don’t let go of lucrative taxation handles such as stamp duties either. Given this misfortune, it is not surprising that the interests of these local bodies were completely ignored in the GST design as well.
While states at least received a promise of 14 per cent revenue loss compensation for five years, the local governments weren’t even considered legitimate stakeholders in revenue sharing of the GST. This, despite the fact that some of their revenue sources were subsumed under the GST leaving them with even fewer options towards achieving any semblance of aatmnirbharta.
An ICRIER study prepared for the 15th Finance Commision expands:
However, in order to maintain fiscal "balance" across the three levels of government, the combined revenues from GST ought to have been shared among all the three levels of government. Instead, the sharing has been half and half between centre and states and in the process, the independent power of local governments to raise their own sources of revenue has been appropriated by the centre and states. GST has subsumed local taxes such as octroi including accounts-based octroi in the form of local body tax, entry tax and advertisement tax… Admittedly GST is a much more efficient and buoyant tax for urban local governments. But with the introduction of GST, no state government will be able to assign such taxes or any other variant of consumption-based taxes to their urban local governments in future. This is in contrast with many countries around the world which have provided their urban local governments access to goods and services tax and income tax.
So GST and the “act of god” pandemic together have by far had the worst impact on the finances of our local governments. What’s the way forward? Here’s what we can anticipate:
Local governments will cut capital expenditure in the coming years as a result of the shortfall. Salaries and pensions are sticky expenditures so they are unlikely to be cut. Be prepared for incomplete projects, and bad roads for the next couple of years at least.
The only tax handle now remaining with most municipal governments is property tax. As and when the pandemic ends, some municipal governments may opt for a hike in these rates in the hope of raising revenue quickly.
There is also a positive here. Economic Survey 2016-17 estimated that property tax potential is heavily underutilised. Even in a city like Bengaluru, there is a potential to increase collections by five times the current number.
Hopefully, this crisis will start a move by local governments to bring in more people under the property tax net instead of increasing tax rates. That’s where the focus of citizen activism should be.
Since local governments have their back to the wall, we might also see some experimentation to raise money through municipal bonds. Raising non-tax revenue through user charges and fees is necessary for making a bond attractive.
“Wherever possible, charge” is a good rule for improving local government financing. Let’s see whether this crisis leads municipal governments to a new equilibrium.
HomeWork
Reading and listening recommendations on public policy matters
[Article] Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes in The Indian Express on the underlying cultural nihilism in the politics of belief. A deeply reflective piece on squaring the rationality contradiction we discuss in this newsletter.
[Podcast] A 3 hour 20 mins marathon on India - past, present and future - between Pratap Bhanu Mehta and Amit Varma on The Seen and The Unseen.
That’s all for this weekend. Read and share.