This newsletter is really a weekly public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?
PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.
Matsyanyaaya: Constraining the Pakistani Military-Jihadi Complex
Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action
— Pranay Kotasthane
After a long time, India-Pakistan talks were back making the headlines last week. Moeed Yusuf, Special Assistant on National Security and Strategic Policy Planning to the Pakistani PM, hinted in an interview to The Wire that backchannel discussions about a political dialogue are in the works.
We don’t think political dialogues between India and Pakistan at the highest levels are useful. To the contrary, talks, especially at higher levels of the political spectrum, have a close correlation with terrorist attacks engineered by the Pakistani military-jihadi complex (MJC).
MJC is a framework we use to describe Pakistan’s seemingly duplicitous behaviour. That’s because Pakistan is not one geopolitical entity, but two. The first is a putative state which has all the paraphernalia that gives it a veneer of a normal state. However, this putative state competes with a multi-dimensional entity comprised of military, militant, radical Islamist and political-economic structures that pursues a set of domestic and foreign policies to ensure its own survival and relative dominance: something we refer to as the military-jihadi complex (MJC).
The status of the talks aside, I wrote a paper analysing the impact of some major recent political developments on the MJC and its India policy. I take stock of four developments, and analyse the risks and opportunities arising out of these developments for the MJC, and hence to India.
Development #1: The MJC’s External Benefactors Have Changed
Earlier, the MJC’s adventures were bankrolled indirectly by the US and directly by Saudi Arabia. Those days are long gone. The most important financier for the MJC now is China.
Risks and opportunities for India
The most prominent risk is that because the MJC is dependent on PRC like never before, and both are adversarial to India, it will continue to hurt Indian interests in order to prove its relevance to PRC.
The opportunity for India is that as PRC and MJC come closer, it will be easier to expose the structural flaws in their unequal relationship. As PRC increases its influence in Pakistan’s economy, nationalist forces (and even sections of the MJC) are likely to create fault lines between the two countries.
Countermeasures and Preparedness
India should prepare to face a diplomatic offensive of the MJC-PRC combine at various multilateral fora over Kashmir. Closer ties with the US, Japan, Australia and France are important to tackle this offensive. India also needs to be prepared for a rise in infiltration attempts and terrorist activity in Kashmir.
As a countermeasure, India’s messaging should aim to accentuate the underlying cultural, social, and economic differences between China and Pakistan in order to reduce the flow of capital from PRC to the MJC. The weaker the MJC’s external benefactor, the more constrained it will be.
Development #2: The US-Taliban Peace Agreement
The MJC has played a major role in steering and pressuring the Afghan Taliban to sign this agreement. In the process, it managed to partially repair flailing ties with the US. More importantly, it made major headway in its long-cherished aim of installing a pliant government in Kabul.
Risks and opportunities for India
The acceptance of the Taliban as a legitimate political force by the US is a moral and material victory for the MJC. The US-Taliban peace agreement is a tangible result for its policy of sustained terrorism in Afghanistan. Even a partial withdrawal of the US on the Taliban’s—and by extension, the MJC’s—terms will reaffirm the MJC’s faith in using terrorism as state policy. It might then apply this lesson to double down on terrorism against India as well.
India’s economic and diplomatic footprint will reduce in the short term. A case in point is the MJC’s attempt to designate four Indian nationals in Afghanistan under the UN 1267 Sanctions List accusing them of spreading terrorism in Pakistan.
Another risk is the MJC relocating its terror networks to Loya Paktika in eastern Afghanistan, a hotbed of anti-India activities in the past. This would allow the MJC to use terrorism against India while claiming that it has driven terrorists out of Pakistan.
The long-term opportunity for India is that as the US reduces its presence, Pakistan will be left with the unenviable task of managing the volatile situation in Afghanistan. It will be drawn into the seemingly irreconcilable differences in the Afghanistan polity. If a civil war-like situation erupts, the MJC will be left with more problems in its hands.
Countermeasures and Preparedness
India needs to be prepared for a scenario in which the MJC attempts to eliminate all Indian presence in Afghanistan. India must act to help its friends, not just in northern Afghanistan but also in the anti-Taliban forces in the south. At the same time, India would need to look at opening links, if not already done, with sections of the Taliban that do not want to be beholden to the MJC’s control. Finally, India’s focus in Afghanistan over the long-term should shift towards eliminating Pakistan-backed terrorist outfits’ relocation to eastern Afghanistan.
Development #3: India’s Revocation of the Special Status of Jammu and Kashmir
Given how invested the MJC has been in fomenting trouble in J&K, it is unlikely to take the abrogation of Article 370 lying down. Any action in Kashmir helps the MJC prove its relevance to the Pakistani society in the short-term. Hence, it would be eager to use this situation to further destabilise J&K and spread unrest elsewhere in India citing India’s move as the reason.
Risks and opportunities for India
The MJC is likely to continue with its policy of abetment of civil disobedience and violent protests. It will continue to support cross-border terrorism and might even resume a new insurgency against the Indian State by creating new outfits. The MJC would also want to revive insurgencies in other parts of India. Finally, India will face diplomatic offensive from PRC and Pakistan in the coming months over this move.
The opportunity for India arising out of this development is a chance to change the nature of the social contract of Kashmiris with the Indian state once and for all. Previous attempts at growth and prosperity in Kashmir were opposed by fundamentalists who saw these as attempts to change the demographic character of the Kashmir valley. The change in the special status of J&K allows India to ignore such calls and bring economic opportunities to Kashmir.
Preparedness and countermeasures
One, India needs to shift to a surgical and “smart” Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) approach whose provisions can be limited in time and space. A change in the AFSPA will signal New Delhi’s bona fides and invite Kashmiri political leaders to reciprocate.
Second, the Government of India should opt for marginal, and not maximal response. It should reverse the damage done to the morale of the J&K police. It should lift the communications blockade and allow public protests and demonstrations to resume as these outlets are key to reducing the importance of the MJC as the prime influencer.
Third, India can consider deploying a Special Task Force of highly capable middle-level civil servants from across India for a period of three years to restore broken governance delivery systems.
With COVID-19, the tourism economy of Kashmir has been severely hit. This could make the young more vulnerable to the MJC’s machinations. Hence it is important for India to find livelihood alternatives. One way to do that is to create Priority Development Areas for the promotion of agro-processing, premium bottled water, and premium handicrafts. In the Jammu plains, the government could invite investors in contract farming. Bringing in international expertise in this space would also be a positive step.
Next, India needs to develop a strategic communication plan to defeat false and competing narratives generated by the MJC.
Finally, conducting local and assembly elections in the medium term to restart the political machinery and reverting J&K to a full state under the Republic of India after announcing elections will take off the edge from the MJC’s misinformation campaigns.
As a direct countermeasure, India should draw the world’s attention to the atrocities the MJC has unleashed in FATA. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) — a protest movement poses a unique challenge to the MJC because of its mass support base and a nonviolent character. This movement has the potential to seriously challenge the MJC and India’s efforts in Pakistan should be to align with the Pashtun cause. The Baloch insurgency by itself is too weak to change the power equations in Islamabad.
Development #4: Pakistan’s economic downturn
This weak domestic economy, coupled with the MJC’s diminished inability to extract from its external benefactors, also affects the MJC’s fortunes. It is now forced to look inwards and corner more resources for itself.
Risks and opportunities for India
A weakened economy reduces the range of options available to the MJC and makes some elements of it risk-averse. This means that the MJC will continue to rely on low-cost asymmetric options such as terrorism to hurt India. Abetting and sponsoring terrorism in areas with active insurgencies, both in Afghanistan and India are likely to continue.
The opportunity for India is that a weak economy puts the MJC squarely against forces opposed to it. For instance, the Pakistani Army has been opposing a reform for a fair division of financial resources between the federal and provincial governments. This offers an opportunity for India because this fight over economic resources has a powerful ethnic dimension. Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan — all three provinces that stood to gain from the 18th constitutional amendment see this controversy as another attempt by the overwhelmingly Punjabi Pakistani Army to amass resources at their cost.
Preparedness and countermeasures
Whenever the MJC’s popularity declines in Pakistan, tensions with India allow it to regain lost ground. So, India should be prepared to face new asymmetric warfare attempts.
To further constrain the MJC, India should utilise the FATF mechanism and press upon the member countries that Pakistan still remains a hotbed of institutionalised terror activity. FATF grey-listing will make capital inflows difficult in an already investment-starved economy.
Finally, studies to expose how the MJC corners economic resources of the Pakistani state might also help manufacture a public opinion within Pakistan that questions the MJC. The lynchpin of the MJC, the Pakistani Army, is still the most trusted institution in Pakistan. To get the two Pakistans to lock horns with each other, a public narrative needs to be built exposing the extractive nature of the MJC.
After discussing these four developments, I end with the warning that the extent to which India can deploy these countermeasure options is limited by its own domestic situation. For one, a weak economy means that India will become cautious in exercising options that demand considerable resources. Secondly, the communally charged domestic narrative that the Citizenship Amendment Act has unleashed allows the MJC to reciprocally exploit fissures in Indian society. Conversely, a fast-growing economy and a stable, peaceful society will allow India to exploit a wider range of options to tackle the MJC.
The full paper can be read here.
India Policy Watch: That Tanishq Ad
Insights on burning policy issues in India
— RSJ
Tanishq, a Tata company, withdrew its latest ad for its new collection titled ‘Ekatvam’ (“oneness”) after #boycottTanishq trended on Twitter. The ad featured a pregnant Hindu woman being surprised by her Muslim mother-in-law who had organised an elaborate traditional Hindu baby shower ceremony for her. This was a generic feel-good ad that’s a staple during the festive season. The Hindu-Muslim angle is one of the more tried and tested variants of this genre. No one was shown in any bad light and Suraj Barjatya would have been proud of its cloying storyline.
Yet, There Was Outrage
There were three reasons for the outrage depending on the sophistry of people being outraged.
First, the ad was seen as an attempt to normalise ‘love jihad’ – a belief that Muslim men are being trained and supported by forces inimical to India to woo Hindu girls and marry them in a ‘fresh’ attempt to colonise India. The government in parliament has denied its existence. It doesn’t require a lot of common sense to see through the lack of logic of this notion. That Muslim men will organise themselves to colonise India one Hindu girl at a time seems like a lot of effort with many low probability events to come through. Love in India doesn’t bloom easily even among the young of the same caste and community. ‘Love marriages’ still account for less than seven per cent all marriages. There’s no proof that Muslim men are being trained on some kind of finishing school that specialises in wooing techniques. Importantly, this assumes Hindu girls to be devoid of any agency of their own to decide who to fall in love with and marry.
Despite these obvious logical flaws, the narrative around ‘love jihad’ has built up over the years. The Muslim stars of Bollywood who have Hindu wives are often indirectly cited as role models for Muslim boys. As an aside, generations of Muslim female actors have married Hindu men over the years in Bollywood (from Nargis, Mumtaz, Zarina Wahab to Sonam). Any incident of a Hindu girl falling in love with a Muslim boy is used as an example of ‘love jihad’ and played up. The parents of girls in India live with multiple anxieties regarding their safety, well-being and marriage even in this day and age. This is unfortunate. To such paranoia, it isn’t too difficult to add ‘love jihad’.
The second lot of outragers followed good, old whataboutery. Their contention: if the ad was serious about Hindu-Muslim amity, it should have reversed the roles. The girl should have been Muslim in a Hindu household. Apparently, this would have triggered massive Muslim protests, violence and liberal outrage about Hindus cornering the minorities and obliterating their identity and customs. This is all too easy to puncture. There have been films galore in the past two decades that have stereotyped Muslim jihadi villains without much of an outrage. In fact, Indian popular culture is replete with stereotypical Muslims – from a do-gooder neighbour, to a pir or, of late, a radical or a jihadi – without much of a reaction from the community. It is a bit specious to believe a reversal of roles would have meant trouble.
Lastly, there are those who have accused Tanishq of being too ‘woke’ for their own good. The argument is they should focus on selling jewellery and stay from ‘social causes’ that they don’t have an idea about. These aren’t compelling arguments. Consumer brands draw from the society to shape their communications. They research behaviour pattern, track changing social mores, and take stock of the attitudes and values prevalent in the society on an ongoing basis. No wonder advertisements often capture the zeitgeist earlier than other forms of popular culture – from yeh dil maange more to kitna deti hai. To accuse them of not understanding ground realities is rich. The point on being too ‘woke’ doesn’t merit any discussion. Any decent or noble thought can be dissed as one these days.
Despite the flimsy outrage, Tanishq withdrew the ad:
"This film has stimulated divergent and severe reactions, contrary to its very objective. We are deeply saddened with the inadvertent stirring of emotions and withdraw this film keeping in mind the hurt sentiments and well being of our employees, partners and store staff,"
That a group like Tata, a model corporate citizen with long years of service to the nation under its belt, could capitulate to online trolls and withdraw an ad that promoted harmony triggered another cycle of outrage.
Well, a day in the life of India on Twitter.
This Is Different
The outrage, Tanishq’s reaction to it and its aftermath represent a distinct shift from the past. There’s something to learn from them about where we are as a polity now.
In this instance, we are in what can be termed the post-narrative phase engineered by the so-called cultural right-wing. Something nebulous like ‘love jihad’ has been crystallised over the past few years through multiple stories, myths and fake outrage. It even turned into a minor election issue in UP sometime back. Now this myth is so firmly established that its veracity isn’t in question. The reason for outrage instead is the ‘normalisation’ of it. That it is the ‘truth’ is already established. We are in the world beyond it. This will give a fillip to other such myths (multiple wives, high fertility rates to name two) that abound in this space. Sudarshan TV had recently run a programme titled UPSC jihad that alleged a conspiracy by the same elements who ran love jihad to now infiltrate the civil services in India. The Supreme Court had to intervene. But the seed has been sown. Now every time a Muslim candidate clears the UPSC test, expect UPSC jihad conspiracy theory to be revived. The trajectory for the future has been established.
This apart, the outrage will deepen the ‘chilling effect’ in media and popular culture. The takedown of the Tanishq ad represents a win for a modus operandi that’s become common across the world – employ numerous bots to get the flywheel of outrage going, the flywheel then attracts others with imagined grievances or hate, it soon trends on social media that in turn creates fear of repercussions for the brand or the individual. Soon, they capitulate. From cancel culture on the left to right-wing conspiracy theories, this approach is a winner. It will take enormous courage for a brand or a film director to contemplate an inter-faith script in future.
Lastly, there is something particularly odious about this outrage. There have been protests against ads, books or films in the past because of the alleged disrespect shown to a religion or a community. From banning The Satanic Verses, renaming a film Padmavat to not using Chattrapati Maharaj before Shivaji, the grievance is always about an insult – real or mostly imagined. This is the first case where the grievance is about harmony. It is about the alleged sinister machination underpinning this harmony. This is new and a significant step in the process of ‘othering’ where even coming together of communities cannot be countenanced.
Something to reflect on for every right-thinking Indian.
PolicyWTFs: The Tax Base Problem
This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?
— Pranay Kotasthane
Tax Revenue = Tax Base * Tax Rate
This simple equation implies that when revenues need to be raised, governments can do three things: raise the tax rate, increase the number of people paying the tax, or do both. However, in low state-capacity democracies like India, governments always seem to pick the first option. After all, it is always easier and faster for the governments to charge the same people more by increasing the tax rate than get more people to pay by increasing the tax base.
Following on, be prepared for calls to raise tax rates across the board. State and city government finances have gone for a toss due to COVID-19 and the union government’s chicanery on GST. They now have no other option but to raise their own revenues. Enter the dragon: tax rate hikes.
For instance, in Bengaluru, the local government is contemplating an increase of 15 to 30 per cent in property tax rates. On the surface, targeting property tax collections is prudent. The Economic Survey 2016-17 claimed that Bengaluru was collecting just a fifth of its property tax potential. Moreover, property taxes are paid by residents and hence this tax has a higher linkage compared to other taxes, between those who pay, those who benefit, and those who decide.
Where the government is getting it wrong is that instead of increasing the property tax base, tax rates are being hiked. Even if we ignore the ethical dimension given the pandemic, hiking rates is counterproductive. There is a negative correlation between tax rates and tax base i.e. high tax rates disincentivise people from paying taxes and create a parallel tax-avoidance economy in turn. The tax-avoidance economy is lucrative for the revenue collectors as well — higher the rates, higher the number of evaders willing to pay a lower amount bribe to them.
Whether it’s property tax rates or GST, the same policyWTF is repeated: first, a new tax gets levied with a low tax-base but a high tax rate. Next, the already high tax-rate is increased steadily because the tax base is low and finally, when increasing rates is no longer enough, raising the tax base is contemplated.
The approach should be the reverse. Every new tax should aim to cover the largest number of people first through extremely low tax rates. Once that’s done, technology should be used to prevent underpayment. Finally, tax rates can be revised incrementally. We are a long way off this ideal and we don’t seem to be learning even in this crisis.
HomeWork
Reading and listening recommendations on public policy matters
[Article] David French writing for the Persuasion on The Hate at the Heart of Conspiracy Theory. The lede sums it up: Liberty can survive intense disagreement. But it cannot survive pure hate.
[Article] Govinda Rao on why the GST saga is terrible for the future of federalism in India.
[Podcast] India’s armed forces still don’t operate under unified theatre commands. Why is ‘jointness’ beneficial and how should India’s theatre commands look? The latest episode of Puliyabaazi with Lt Gen Prakash Menon has the answers.
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